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Top stories today: 1) ByteDance's revenue grows to $80B+, 2) Tesla's deliveries rise 4% to 423K in Q1, 3) Trump expands lead in polls and betting markets, as we wait for tomorrow's surrender, 4) OPEC+ announces surprise 1.6M barrel/day cut, and 5) Twitter starts removing legacy blue checkmarks.

0. Data and calendar

1. ByteDance's revenue rises 30+% in 2022 to $80B+

TikTok, their non-China app, contributed “only” $10B

• Finally, ByteDance's latest valuation: $200B - The Information

If TikTok is so small, why don't ByteDance and China want to sell it?

1. ByteDance thinks TikTok's revenue will grow disproportionally over the next few years.

2. There are many synergies between TikTok and Douyin (the Chinese version), including of course their very similar software.

3. The Chinese government likes the power associated with having one of the most used applications in the West.

2. Tesla's deliveries rise 4% QoQ to 423K in Q1, beating exp. of 420K

97% of Tesla's sales are for its cheaper 3/Y models

Read more: WSJ, Tesla.

Tesla stock is down 2% in the premarket

3. Trump expands lead in polls and betting markets

He is now 57% x 31% vs DeSantis in the latest Yahoo News / YouGov poll:

Independents are divided on the Manhattan indictment:

An ABC / Ipsos poll paints a similar picture:

FiveThirtyEight thinks the indictment won't matter

Trump's favorability numbers are remarkably stable:

“The “no difference” hypothesis probably has the most historical precedent as far as Trump is concerned. But again, Trump has never faced a situation as grave as an indictment, so no outcome should surprise us. So as we like to say here at FiveThirtyEight, we’ll have to wait and see.” - FiveThirtyEight

Betting markets price Trump as a 56% favorite for the GOP nomination

Trump lawyers: judge not biased, mugshot uncertain, will plead not guilty and file motion to dismiss

Tomorrow, Trump is expected to surrender in NY

• A gag order against Trump could be imposed by Judge Merchan today.

• Many protests are expected in NYC. Even MTG will be there.

In related news…

• Michael Cohen's lawyer: indictment might involve payment to 2nd woman.

• Mar-a-Lago criminal probe: more evidence of obstruction (albeit a very weak case, similar to the Manhattan one and unlike the Jan 6. and Georgia's "find” the votes ones).

• Why did Trump allegedly pay porn star Daniels if their affair details were already online?

4. OPEC+ announces surprise 1.6M barrel/day cut

This represents around 2% of global production

• Added to the 2M b/d in cuts agreed in October, this amounts to 4% of the world's petroleum production being taken off the market in 7 months. - WSJ

Still, oil futures spiked 6%

The obvious solution is for the West to increase its production

These price manipulations are only possible because Western governments discourage domestic production, leading to the dominance of the Saudi-led OPEC+ cartel. End the shackles on oil and gas companies, and production will naturally rise to meet demand.

Read more: Bloomberg, Fossil Future (book).

5. Twitter now no longer discloses whether a blue checkmark comes from paying or not

Notice the “or”:

Move could be very risky for Twitter

• Legacy influencers and celebrities loved the status of their blue checkmarks, and now have an ever-increasing incentive to switch to a platform where there's some verification-style status symbol.

Twitter removed NYT's blue check mark, after the paper refused to pay for Blue ($7/mo)

Elon is stepping up his direct attacks on the NYT

• In related, news SVB's collapse complicates banks’ efforts to sell $25B+ in junk bonds, including $13B from Twitter. - WSJ

6. Regional banks woes hit an already beaten-up San Francisco

Office vacancies closed Q1 at 29.5%, a record high:

AI could be the reversal of this trend

• OpenAI, Anthropic, and most other generative AI companies are based in San Francisco. For companies working on cutting-edge innovation like AI, in-person collaboration is essential. The concentration of qualified talent, venture capitalists, and live events are attracting founders back to the Bay Area.

7. Other headlines

Tech

• Neuralink is having trouble getting FDA authorization for its 1st trial.

• Instacart's latest internal 409a valuation rises from $10B to $12B.

• Paris e-scooter referendum: 89% vote to ban; 15K scooters to be removed by Sep 1.

• Sam Altman, CEO of OpenAI: great profile by the WSJ.

• Elon Musk: details on his dream of transforming Twitter into a super-app.

• Sundar Pichai: podcast interview with the NYT.

• a16z and Flow courting Saudi Arabia, Horowitz praises Saudi Crown Prince.

• Longevity: why are Americans dying so young?

  • A good 2021 analysis from Jeremy Ney.

Business

• SVB's risk models pointed to problems since at least 2020.

• McDonald’s to announce U.S. layoff notices this week.

• UBS to cut 20-30% of staff after merger.

Crypto

• Arbitrum Foundation sells tokens via Wintermute before DAO approval.

• Justin Sun is having talks about selling his stake in Huobi.

Washington and more

• Ex-Gov. Hutchinson (R-Ar.) running for President.

• NSO spyware contracts with the U.S. government are shady and secretive.

• 56% of Americans think college is a bad bet because of no job skills and large debt.

• Putin confiscating passports of top officials.

• Abramovich paid for $208K apartment gifted to Putin's teacher in 2005.

8. Interesting tweets, memes, and images

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