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  • Fed lowers GDP estimate to 1.7% due to tariffs, keeps rates unchanged, as Trump asks for cuts

Fed lowers GDP estimate to 1.7% due to tariffs, keeps rates unchanged, as Trump asks for cuts

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Top stories today:

  1. Fed lowers GDP estimate to 1.7% due to tariffs, keeps rates unchanged
  2. EU continues crackdown against Apple, Google under DMA
  3. OpenAI o1-Pro’s API debuts as its most expensive model yet
  4. Telegram grows to 1B monthly active users, founder Durov reveals
  5. Pixel 9a unveiled by Google to rival iPhone 16e, starting at $499

0. Data and calendar

All values as of 6 AM ET / 3 AM PT, other than S&P500 and NASDAQ close (4 PM ET / 1 PM PT).

All times are ET.

Listen to our AI-generated podcast summarizing today’s newsletter (beware of hallucinations):

1. Fed lowers GDP estimate to 1.7% due to tariffs, keeps rates unchanged, as Trump asks for cuts

President Trump again explicitly called for the Fed to cut rates, challenging the tradition of Fed independence

11 of 19 Fed officials expect at least 2 rate cuts in 2025, down from 15 in Dec.

  • Higher unemployment and weaker growth projected by the officials than they had anticipated in Dec.

  • β€œ[I]nflation coming in from an exogenous source,” Powell said.

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3. EU continues crackdown against Apple, Google under DMA despite Trump threat

Representational image generated using OpenAI’s DALL-E.

  • Apple ordered to open up iOS connectivity features to 3rd-party devices.

  • Interoperability requests from app developers for Apple’s iOS and iPadOS features were also a concern.

  • β€œWrap[s] us in red tape,” Apple said.

  • Google Search favored its services over rivals, preliminary findings noted.

  • Whether Google made it hard for developers to β€œsteer” users outside its app store, regulators questioned.

  • β€œ[W]ill hurt European businesses and consumers, hinder innovation, weaken security, and degrade product quality,” Google said.

4. OpenAI o1-Pro’s API debuts as its most expensive model yet

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