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Top stories today:

1. FTX estate estimates 90% recovery for $9B of customer claims
2. SBF knew of $13B shortfall 2 months before collapse: Singh
3. Israel continues airstrikes on Gaza, as Iran continues threats
4. Home sales to hit 2008 low, but prices remain high
5. AI: 63% of youngest workers using it weekly
6. Life expectancy of non-college plummets below 30-year low

0. Data and calendar

1. FTX estate proposes 90%+ of distributable value going to customer claims

Good news for customers, as the estate has already found $7.3B in assets, not including the ~$2B stake in Anthropic:

• FTX US ($0.2B) recoveries may be higher than those of FTX International ($8.9B).

• Exact values are uncertain and could move based on crypto prices, VC investment sales, etc.

• 15% preference: Customers that withdrew $250K+ on the last 9 days of the collapse would have to return 15%. - The Block, press release

• “Great to see — this is a type of global agreement between Ad Hoc Committee of Non-U.S. Customers, the Official Committee of Unsecured Creditors, and the Debtors — but people should only this is only a rough outline,” Thomas Braziel, partner at 117 Partners, tells us.

  • “Interesting to see that SRM was not called out,” meaning it appears only FTT claims will be disallowed. (Disclaimer: members of our team have investments in FTX claims brokered by Braziel.)

2. FTX 7% owner Nishad Singh: SBF knew of $13B customer shortfall 2 months before collapse

• SBF told Nishad in Sep. 2022, 2 months before FTX’s collapse, that Alameda owed $13B in customer money to FTX, and it only had $5B.

• SBF still had effective control of Alameda, making investments by himself. Nishad would complain about SBF’s lavish spending.

• FTX spent $1.1B on celebrity endorsements, although that includes equity-based awards.

• SBF invested $250M in Modulo Capital after their Sep. 2022 discussion highlighting FTX and Alameda were close to bankruptcy. - The Verge

The odds of SBF getting 50+ years in prison edged up to 27%, according to prediction markets

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4. Israel continues airstrikes on Gaza, as Biden announces visit, Iran continues threats