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Harris, Trump at exactly 50% on top forecaster Nate Silver’s projections

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Top stories today:

  1. Harris, Trump at exactly 50% in Nate Silver’s projections
  2. Anthropic releases Claude 3.5 Haiku with 4x price of predecessor
  3. OpenAI said to be in discussions with regulators to become for-profit
  4. Apple to provide limited ChatGPT access via Siri for free
  5. Palantir reports record profit on “unrelenting” AI demand

0. Data and calendar

All values as of 6 AM ET / 3 AM PT, other than S&P500 and NASDAQ close (4 PM ET / 1 PM PT).

All times are ET.

Correction: yesterday’s calendar showed an incorrect BioNTech’s Previous data. It is correct now.

Listen to our AI-generated podcast summarizing today’s newsletter (beware the few hallucinations):

1. Harris, Trump at exactly 50% in top forecaster Nate Silver’s projections

  • Nationally, Harris is +0.1% in the polls.

  • In PA, Trump is +0.4%. Pennsylvania is the most likely tipping point state, and whoever wins it has a ~90% chance of winning the election, according to Silver.

  • Mon.: Harris was in Philadelphia’s art museum and addressed a crowd.

  • Trump was in Michigan and held his final campaign rally in Battle Creek.

  • 5 PM ET: exit polls in non-battle ground states should come out.

  • 6 PM ET: results are expected shortly after polls start to close then.

Joe Rogan explicitly endorsed Trump while interviewing mega-donor Elon Musk

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3. Anthropic releases Claude 3.5 Haiku with 4x price of predecessor

  • The price hike is to “reflect its increase in intelligence,” Anthropic said.

  • Claude 3.5 Haiku surpassed Claude 3 Opus’ benchmark performance.

  • Jun.: Claude 3.5 Sonnet was released; at the time, on par with GPT-4o, which has since surpassed it.

4. OpenAI said to be in discussions with regulators to become for-profit company

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