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Top stories today:
1. Microsoft announces Windows Copilot, Bing as the default in ChatGPT
2. Google experiments with ads in its AI chatbot in Search
3. Anthropic raises $450M: $1.45B in total, only behind OpenAI
4. Ron DeSantis to announce candidacy on Twitter with Elon at 6 PM ET
5. Elon confirms X.AI as a “third horse” in the AI race, predicts 3-6 years to AGI
6. No deal achieved on the debt ceiling, with 8 days until June 1

0. Data and calendar

1. Microsoft announces Windows Copilot, Bing as the default search in ChatGPT

Windows will have the same Copilot being integrated into Edge, 365 Office apps, and GitHub:

Browsing with Bing is being rolled out to Plus users at this time, and will be available for all users shortly:

Microsoft had smaller announcements, including:

• 365 Pilot being integrated into Edge - The Verge

• Microsoft 365 AI-powered Copilot getting plugins - The Verge

• Windows Terminal getting AI features - The Verge

• Microsoft Fabric, a new unified platform for analytics - Techcrunch 

• Power Pages, a low-code website creation tool - Techcrunch

• Cryptographic watermarks for its AI-generated art - PC World

A nice 5-minute video summary is below:

Our view: this is the 1st time Windows really challenges the Mac. How will Apple react?

• Potential game-changer for Windows: Copilot available on the OS level and major applications (Office 365) could be a game-changer in terms of desktop UI.

  • Until now, the Mac has been widely seen as the superior OS and product, overlooking its higher price. Windows is mostly preferred for financial applications and cost-conscious enterprises. AI may change that.

• Unlike Google, we are not seeing Apple make AI announcements or investments (Google invested in Anthropic).

  • Apple is likely developing AI capabilities: Last week, the WSJ reported that Apple is developing “similar technology” as ChatGPT and other AI tools, so we may be seeing leaks or announcements soon.

2. Google experiments with ads in its AI chatbot in Search

Ads will be displayed above and below the generative AI response

Google is also testing generative AI features for its ads/marketing suite, like image generation

Google will help users create and optimize ads

Our view: Google is doing a good job of keeping up with Microsoft on generative AI

• Google got the message from ChatGPT: users love generative AI, and the company has quickly implemented AI features across its suite of products.

  • Unfortunately, most features are still in private beta — this is true for both Google and Microsoft. These mega-cap companies like to test new things with select users before public release.

3. Anthropic raises $450M: $1.45B in total, only behind OpenAI

• Valuation of $4.1B+: that was reportedly the valuation of their last round, so we expect this one to be slightly higher.

• Raising $5B over 2 years: that’s how much they think they need to effectively compete with OpenAI and Google. - Techcrunch

Our view: it is hard for Anthropic to compete with OpenAI/Microsoft and Google

• Anthropic has <$1B in cash, while Microsoft and Google have $104B and $115B, respectively.

  • AI is extremely CAPEX intensive, as LLMs require running GPU chip farms. Elon Musk recently estimated a minimum investment of $250M to be able to compete in the LLM race.

• 100M users already use ChatGPT, and billions use Google.

  • Anthropic hasn’t even launched a consumer product, only APIs. So it lags behind here too.

4. Ron DeSantis to announce candidacy on Twitter with Elon at 6 PM ET

• Confirmed by Elon himself at a WSJ event.

Our view: big for Twitter, bad for Fox News

• Twitter consolidates as the internet’s town hall: increasingly, it is becoming the de facto place where news and discussions happen in real-time.

  • Mainstream media’s hysterical “far-right” slur: We continue to see the mainstream media call Twitter and Elon “far-right,” even though he’s mostly a Democratic voter and talks to people from across the spectrum. For example, he most recently interviewed the BBC and Tucker Carlson.

• Fox News loses power on the conservative stage: First, Tucker was fired and defected to Twitter, and now we get this DeSantis news. Fox was once the central force in GOP-focused media, and now it sees competition from Newsmax, Twitter, among others.

5. Elon confirms X.AI as a “third horse” in the AI race, predicts 3-6 years to AGI

• “ I think there should be a significant third horse in the race” to compete against OpenAI/Microsoft and Google Deepmind.

• X.AI to have a relationship with Twitter and Tesla, “something similar” to OpenAI and Microsoft.

• He supports a national AI regulatory agency, and potentially an international one, if China cooperates with the U.S.

• “3 years, maybe 6 years away from [AGI], this decade” - WSJ

6. No deal achieved on the debt ceiling, with 8 days until June 1

• House lawmakers prepare to leave Washington on Thu, and Monday is Memorial Day. - Bloomberg

  • Next week is d-week for the federal government to avoid running out of money on June 1. A technical debt default is only expected on June 15, when debt payments are scheduled.

  • 10+ House Dems are ready to support McCarthy, if he gets a bipartisan deal that does not satisfy the MAGA wing of the GOP. - Bloomberg

  • $68B left in the Treasury’s coffer, as of Monday. - Treasury

  • 60% support spending cuts coupled with a debt ceiling increase. - CNN

• 14th Amendment lawsuits are starting to pop up: one filed by a federal workers union in Boston has a May 31 hearing.

  • The DOJ has been vague on whether the debt ceiling is unconstitutional because of the 14th Amendment. - POLITICO

7. Share buybacks continue at 2021-2022 pace

We do not see a buyback dip, like the one that happened in 2020, due to Covid:

8. SF downtown retail vacancy rate reaches 19%

• Foot traffic -27% in February, vs. the same period in 2019, before the pandemic.

• Downtown BART station traffic -70% in March, compared with before the pandemic. - WSJ

Our view: SF’s problems could easily be solved with sensible policy

GrowSF’s platform is remarkably rational:

9. Other headlines

AI

• Meta AI proposes new Megabyte model that could beat Transformers.

• NVIDIA CEO criticizes chip wars with China, “enormous damage.”

• Firefox: Google and OpenAI/Microsoft fighting over partnership.

• Buzzfeed launches AI chatbot for recipes, Botatouilee.

Tech

• Netflix sending emails to account sharers, asking for extra $7.99/mo.

• Apple signs multibillion, multiyear deal with Broadcom for 5G; U.S. focus.

• Meta agrees to sell Giphy for $53M on UK regulator’s order.

• WWDC 2023 schedule released: keynote is June 5 at 1 PM ET.

• Windows 11 adds support for RAR, other compression methods.

Biotech

• Rapamycin: why caloric restriction mimetics should have small effects.

• Rejuvenation Startup Summit to take place in Berlin, in May 2024.

• FDA approves new buprenorphine treatment for opioid use disorder.

Business

• Fed has new Twitter-based credit and financial market sentiment index.

• Martin Shkreli now living with sister, earning $2.5K/mo; unclear net worth.

• NYT minimum wage to be $65K, median $160K.

Crypto

• Binance denies Reuters report it commingled customer and company funds.

• Ledger delays Recover feature after criticism.

• Solana releases ChatGPT plugin.

• Treasury sanctions Binance wallets holding $2M connected to North Korea.

• Zuzalu: on the private, 2-month event in Montenegro, featuring Vitalik.

U.S. politics

• Trump’s Mar-a-Lago probe wrapping up, indictment could come soon.

• Trump lawyers asking for a meeting with Attorney General.

• Chief Justice: committed to highest standards, looking at things to do.

• Harlan Crow to Senate: Congress has no authority to investigate SCOTUS.

• 41% approve the Supreme Court, from 38% in 2022 and 66% in 2020.

World

• U.S. and China see Commerce Secretary dinner as 1st step to repair ties.

• Putin admits Russia is going through “difficult times.”

• Anti-Kremlin fighters take war into Russian territory for 2nd day.

• Wagner owner, Prigozhin, openly criticizes Russia’s minister of Defense.

• WSJ reporter Gershkovich’s pretrial detention extended by 3 months.

10. Interesting tweets, memes, and images

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