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Top stories today:
1. ChatGPT: iOS app and Plugins for all released, as Apple restricts internal use
2. SCOTUS: online platforms are shielded from user content liabilities
3. Apple's MR headset to be worse than what Tim Cook wanted
4. Disney scraps $864M Florida campus
5. House and Senate get ready for debt ceiling vote next week

0. Data and calendar

1. OpenAI launches ChatGPT app for iOS and Plugins for all Plus users

The app is like the web version but with voice input, leveraging OpenAI's open-source speech-recognition system:

Our view: Plugins for ChatGPT Web are very cool, but still very slow for most use cases

ChatGPT took 15 seconds to answer this question on the distance between SF and London, using the Wolfram Plugin:

Google took less than 1 second to find the correct answer:

Read more: Techcrunch, OpenAI.

Meanwhile, Apple restricts ChatGPT, Copilot for employees; is developing AI tools itself

• “Apple has restricted the use of ChatGPT and other external artificial intelligence tools for some employees as it develops its own similar technology.” - WSJ

  • No details on what these AI tools are, unfortunately.

• In contrast, the NYC Public School system is now embracing ChatGPT, after restricting it initially. - Chalkbeat

OpenAI CEO Sam Altman clarified that he supports regulation primarily for larger companies

This is certainly better than having crippling rules for everyone, including the thousands of startups playing with AI:

2. Supreme Court unanimously holds that online platforms are shielded from user content liabilities

2 cases were ruled in favor of online platforms:

1. Twitter v. Taamneh, in which the Supreme Court unanimously ruled Twitter would not have to face accusations that it aided and abetted terrorism just because ISIS used the website.

2. Gonzalez v. Google, which was unanimously dismissed, leaving a lower court ruling that holds Section 230 as protecting platforms from a broad range of content moderation lawsuits. - CNN

Our view: these rulings make sense and are necessary for the functioning of society

• Reductio ad absurdum: As Justice Thomas wrote in the Twitter opinion, if platforms are liable for user content, what's next, email providers being liable? Knife manufacturers being liable for murders?

3. Apple's MR headset to be a much worse version of what Tim Cook wanted

More details coming out from Apple whisperer Mark Gurman:

• Tim Cook's initial ambition was lightweight augmented reality (AR) glasses.

  • The final result is a heavy “mixed reality” (MR) goggle, visually similar to competitors like the Meta Quest Pro.

  • Technology isn't there yet for AR.

  • The device will have an outward-facing display showing the user's eye movements and facial expressions, making it more humanized.

• Apple estimates 1M units sold in Y1, vs 200M+ iPhones.

• Price: ~$3,000, roughly at cost.

• Announcement on June 5, at WWDC. - Bloomberg

4. Disney scraps $864M Florida campus that would have housed 2K employees from California

• Hundreds of employees will be given the option of moving back to California. - WSJ

• Disney is also closing its high-priced Galactic Starcruiser experience at World Disney World, in Orlando. - The Verge

• Orlando Dem. mayor (of course) cheered the move: “DeSantis is going to be gone one way or the other from Florida in four years. Disney’s gonna be here forever. The pendulum has swung on some of these cultural issues.” - Bloomberg

Our view: this is a rational response and likely hurts DeSantis’s chances of being the GOP nominee

1. This fight was wrong to begin with. As a reminder, DeSantis passed a law cutting Disney's self-governing district, as an apparent retaliation after the company supported some LGBT causes.

2. Either way, DeSantis is now losing the fight. This makes it even worse for DeSantis, who is expected to formalize his candidacy next week. Trump has already been attacking him on this issue, and the attacks will likely intensify.

5. House and Senate get ready for debt ceiling vote next week

• McCarthy bullish: “I can see now where a deal can come together.”

  • The deal is expected by the end of the week.

• Schumer prepares a Senate vote for next week, after the House votes. He informed senators that they may have to return to Washington to vote during next week’s planned recess. - Bloomberg

• Biden remains optimistic: From Japan, the President has “told his hand-picked negotiating team in Washington that he’s confident Congress will act in time.” - Bloomberg 

Our view: the deal is coming, with likely around half the cuts the House GOP originally passed

• 6 years of capped spending? A fair estimate of what will be agreed on is the mid between the Dem and the GOP proposals: 6 years of capped spending growth, leading to ~112% debt-to-GDP in 10 years.

6. U.S. home prices -1.7% YoY, deepest fall since 2012

• Median existing home prices: $388.8K in April, -1.7% YoY.

• Existing home sales: 4.28M seasonally adjusted annual rate in April, -3.4% MoM, and -23.2% YoY.

7. Visualized: how higher rates affect the price homebuyers can pay

• Assumptions:

  • 1/3 of pre-tax income goes to mortgage payments.

  • 20% downpayment. - WSJ

• Mortgage payments are sensitive to nominal rates, not real rates.

  • The 30-year Treasury real rate has indeed “only” moved 2 p.p. since 2022, from -0.5% to 1.5%, vs. 3.5 p.p. for the 30-year mortgage nominal rate, from 3% to 6.5%.

  • Still, one pays interest on nominal interest — that's why and how the nominal mortgage rate has such a strong effect on the housing market, and, more broadly, on the economy.

8. Other headlines

Tech

• TikTok creators suing Montana over ban, on 1A grounds (as expected).

• Bilderberg Meeting to include Sam Altman, Satya Nadella, Eric Schmidt.

• Twitter sends Microsoft letter accusing it of improper data usage.

• Twitter videos now have playback speed option, 2-hour limit.

• Chrome to test cookie replacement Privacy Sandbox with 1% of users in 2024.

• Gary Marcus “interested” in playing a role at AI regulatory agency.

• Elon Musk's Walter Isaacson biography to be released on Sep. 12.

• Instacart: 30% of 2022 revenue was advertising.

• Amazon only made 100 drone deliveries, far behind Alphabet and Zipline.

• Meta announces new custom-made AI chips and supercomputer.

• LLaMA: an analysis of Meta's decision to open source it.

• Google not deleting inactive Youtube accounts that have videos.

Business

• ESPN plans to stream channel, going against Fox's cable strategy.

• Frank founder Charlie Javice formally indicted with 4 counts.

• Carl Icahn admits he was wrong to short markets, lost $9B.

• 6M+ cars may be recalled due to faulty airbag parts.

Crypto

• Coinbase launches subscription service One with focus on US, Europe.

• Ledger: it's always technically possible to extract users’ keys.

• “Proof of reserves” now required in Texas.

• Worldcoin rolls out anti-black market measures, exp. launch by June.

• Binance Australia loses access to some AUD payment routes.

U.S. politics

• SCOTUS rejects GOP states’ attempt to maintain Title 42.

• FCC: Biden to pick lawyer Anna Homez to lead agency.

• Punchbowl's access journalism: on their relationship with McCarthy.

• Sen. Feinstein fails to discuss serious illnesses.

World

• Zelensky to attend G7 meeting.

• Taiwan, U.S. agree on unofficial trade deal, irritating China.

• Pentagon's accounting mistake leaves $3B extra for Ukraine aid.

• Syria: U.S. no longer confidential drone killed al-Qaeda leader.

• China puts state-security czar Yixin in charge of U.S. corporate crackdown.

9. Interesting tweets, memes, and images

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