OpenAI could lose as much as $5B in 2024

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Top stories today:

  1. OpenAI could lose as much as $5B in 2024
  2. Mistral Large 2 (123B) underperforms Llama 3.1 (70B) on reasoning
  3. Bing Generative Search launches, coming after Google, Perplexity
  4. CrowdStrike outage cost Fortune 500 $5.4B

0. Data and calendar

All values as of 6 AM ET / 3 AM PT, other than S&P500 and NASDAQ close (4 PM ET / 1 PM PT).

All times are ET.

CORRECTION: Yesterday’s calendar had GDP and Durable goods orders for Wed., rather than today.

1. OpenAI could lose as much as $5B in 2024

  • Gross margin could be ~0% with server costs at or above revenue.

  • Currently unclear how OpenAI can differentiate vs. Meta’s free and open weights Llama 3.1.

  • Likely will need to fundraise over the next 12 months.

2. Mistral Large 2 (123B) underperforms Llama 3.1 (70B) on reasoning, at frontier on coding

Mistral Large’s MMLU of 84% is below the 86% of Llama 3.1 (70B) and the 89% of Llama 3.1 (405B) and GPT-4o:

  • Free only for non-commercial use, unlike Meta’s Llama 3.1, which is free for commercial use too.

  • Open weights.

Mistral Large 2 is particularly good at coding, but still slightly underperforms GPT-4o at that

  • Our view: Mistral continues to lag behind Meta on open weights, and Meta’s larger bankroll and distribution should keep it that way.

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4. Bing Generative Search launches, coming after Google, Perplexity

It looks like a beautified version of Google’s AI Overviews, which have been deprioritized by Google, likely after poor receptivity:

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