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Top stories today:
1. FTC applies for restraining order to block Microsoft from buying Activision
2. EU antitrust case against Google might ask for breakup of ad-tech business
3. China’s VC industry is decimated: from $49B in 2021 to $1B so far in 2023
4. Larry Ellison climbs to #4 richest as Oracle reports revenue +17% YoY
5. CPI (core) expected to drop to 4.1% (5.3%), today at 8:30 AM ET

0. Data and calendar

1. FTC applies for restraining order to block Microsoft from purchasing Activision

• Microsoft allegedly wants to pursue the deal anyway, according to the FTC, even with the agency having sued them and the UK authorities having preliminarily blocked the deal.

• Aug. 2: hearing on the FTC’s date.

• Microsoft President Brad Smith: “We welcome the opportunity to present our case in federal court. We believe accelerating the legal process in the U.S. will ultimately bring more choice and competition to the market.” - CNBC

Activision stock fell 1% while Microsoft’s rose 2%, both little affected by the news

Our view: it is bad for markets that any global regulator can halt a deal

• Too many regulators: Western companies now have to respect the whims of the regulators of the U.S., the EU, and the UK… what's next: India, Brazil, and Mexico too?

• Solution: free markets with fines: It would be much preferable if deals like these were approved by default, and any illegal action tackled later via fines. The current situation brings too much uncertainty to M&As.

2. EU antitrust case against Google might ask for breakup of ad-tech business

• As soon as Wednesday: expected filing date.

• “No obvious behavioral changes that Google could make to address their concerns,” regulators reportedly believe. - WSJ

Google has already paid €8B in fines to the EU; maximum fine is $28B (10% of revenue)

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- “You’re the average of the people you keep closest; Sidebar helps you raise that bar.” - Global Director, Reddit

- “Tap into a new level of coaching support, professional development, and peer-driven accountability.” - Senior Director, Credit Karma

You can spend a decade finding your people, or apply to Sidebar and find them today.

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4. China’s VC industry is decimated: from $49B in 2021 to $1B so far in 2023

• The above only includes funds raised in USD.

  • U.S. investors are pulling out.

  • Chinese VCs are now having to court Middle East investors.

• Yuan-denominated VC funds are also down significantly: from $81B in 2021 to $12B in 2022, -85% YoY. - The Information

5. Larry Ellison climbs to #4 richest as Oracle reports revenue +17% YoY

Quarterly revenue jumped 17% YoY to $13.8B, while net income rose 4% to $3.3B, both beating expectations

Read more: CNBC, Oracle earnings release.

6. Today at 8:30 AM ET: CPI (core) expected to drop to 4.1% (5.3%)

7. Rent prices start to drop on a yearly basis on some websites

This is in line with existing-home sale price data, which were -1.7% YoY in April, its deepest fall since 2012

8. Amazon tests summarizing reviews with AI

Read more: Mark Wieczorek, CNBC.

9. Other headlines

AI

• OpenAI, Google Deepmind, and Anthropic to share models with UK for safety.

• Salesforce increases AI fund from $250M to $500M, launches AI Cloud.

• Google’s beta AI search does a lot of plagiarism: a negative review.

Tech

• Reddit crashes as some subreddits black out due to protests.

• Jack Dorsey: India threatened to block Twitter, raided employees’ homes.

• Twitter CEO: mission is to be global town square.

• Netflix to live stream its 1st sporting event: celebrity golf.

• Vision Pro: Huawei holds trademark for name in China.

Biotech

• Longevity is compatible with being pro-environment.

• Obamacare mandate for preventive care is provisionally restored.

Business

• Taiwan, Korean chip makers allowed by U.S. to keep China operations.

• Insight Ventures cuts new fund from $20B to $15B, only $2B raised.

  • TCV, Tiger also reducing the size of their funds.

• Softbank prepares new layoffs at VC unit, up to 30% of staff.

• Elizabeth Holmes says she cannot pay the $250/month for victims.

• Ex-Samsung exec accused of stealing designs to copy chip plant in China.

• Fox sends Tucker Carlson cease-and-desist letter.

• WaPo: Fred Ryan to leave; former Gates Foundation CEO is interim CEO.

• The Athletic cuts 4% of its newsroom, 20 journalists.

Crypto

• Robinhood’s crypto volume is -43% MoM and -68% YoY.

• Binance US’s market depth is -78% since SEC lawsuit.

• BitGo’s lawsuit against Galaxy over canceled $1.2B purchase dismissed.

• Cardano developer restructuring as venture studio after SEC suits.

• GOP lawmakers introduce bill to fire Gary Gensler as SEC chair.

• UK to ban promoting crypto as inflation hedge.

U.S. politics

• U.S. government is buying “sensitive and intimate information” on citizens.

• Trump still interviewing lawyer candidates for today’s Miami hearing.

• Poll: Trump's lead over DeSantis drops, from 49% - 19% to 43% - 22%.

• Biden denies $5M bribe, talking to DOJ about Trump charges.

• House to vote on resolutions calling on Russia to release 2 American prisoners.

World

• Xi again warns China about “extreme” conditions, including war with West.

• Russia hits residential building in Zelensky hometown, 6+ dead.

• Prigozhin has 2% in tentative poll for Russia’s 2024 race.

• EU wants to use interest from Russia’s frozen $237B to rebuild Ukraine.

• NATO does largest military air exercises in Europe since Cold War.

• South Africa: Congressmen ask WH to punish them for Russian aid.

• Israel to announce 4K+ new housing units in West Bank.

10. Interesting tweets, memes, and videos

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