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  • Trump gets endorsement from Elon, Ackman after assassination attempt, now at 71% odds of winning

Trump gets endorsement from Elon, Ackman after assassination attempt, now at 71% odds of winning

Top stories today:

  1. Trump gets endorsement from Elon, Ackman, now at 71% odds of winning
  2. China’s GDP +4.7% YoY in Q2, retail sales +2.0%
  3. Apple, Samsung phone shipments +1% YoY in Q2
  4. OpenAI working on new project Strawberry (fka Q*)
  5. Khosla, Sequoia most active post-seed investors in Q2

0. Data and calendar

All values as of 6 AM ET / 3 AM PT, other than S&P500 and NASDAQ close (4 PM ET / 1 PM PT).

All times are ET.

1. Trump gets endorsement from Elon, Ackman after assassination attempt, now at 71% odds of winning

Polymarket’s Trump odds jumped from 60% to 71% (the same as Nate Silver's model forecast), as Biden is at 18%, Harris 5%

  • Nate Silver’s forecast remains at Trump 71%, with no post-attempt polls.

  • Trump rewrites Republican convention speech to focus on unity.

  • Secret Service faces intense scrutiny, criticism.

  • Biden gives rare oval office address, promoting unity.

  • Shooter being investigated by FBI.

  • RNC speakers asked to leave speeches unchanged.

2. China’s GDP +4.7% YoY in Q2, industrial output +5.3%, retail sales +2.0%

  • GDP: 4.7% YoY in Q2, vs. 5.1% expected, from 5.3% in the prior quarter.

  • Industrial production: 5.3%, vs. 4.9%, from 5.6%.

  • Retail sales: 2.0%, vs. 3.3%, from 3.7%.

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4. Apple, Samsung phone shipments +1% YoY in Q2, vs. double-digit growth for Chinese makers Xiaomi, vivo

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