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Top stories today:
1. Twitter's new CEO is likely Linda Yaccarino, ad chief at NBCUniversal
2. Anthropic's Claude AI model can now read 100K tokens in one go
3. Biden-top lawmakers debt ceiling meeting postponed to “early next week”
4. Jamie Dimon proposes a ban on short selling of banks

0. Data and calendar

1. Twitter's new CEO is likely Linda Yaccarino, ad chief at NBCUniversal

• Not confirmed, but reported by the WSJ and Kara Swisher.

Previously, Elon said that the CEO would be a female and starting in 6 weeks

Our view: Yaccarino is an admission that Twitter is an ads business, not a subscription one

• Twitter Blue subscriptions represent only 2% of total revenue (633K subscribers x $84 ARR = $53M, vs. ~$3B in revenue).

• Saccarino may be able to attract back the Fortune 500 companies that have paused advertising since Elon took over.

  • Revenue has fallen from $5B to $3B/year.

• Elon will remain as CTO: the CEO being a non-technical person signals that Twitter is serious about revenue growth.

2. Anthropic's Claude AI model can now read 100K tokens in one go

• ~75K words.

• Equivalent to 5 hours of human reading.

• Previous model had a 9K token limit.

• More tokens than OpenAI, whose best API is GPT4-32K, which can process 32K tokens / 24K words. - Techcrunch, Anthropic

Our view: this is the 1st time someone releases an LLM product “better” than OpenAI's

• Can Claude-100K be better than GPT-4-32K? According to LMSYS's Elo ranking of AI chatbots (below), Claude is currently #2, as of May 8.

  • Claude can undoubtedly be better for inputs longer than 32K, since GPT-4 won't be able to process them fully.

  • It will be interesting to see how the 2 models compare at the 32K token level.

• Elo ranking where users are faced with 2 AI chatbots and are asked to vote on which one is better. - LMSYS

• This ranking matches our personal experience using these products.

3. Biden-top lawmakers debt ceiling meeting postponed to “early next week”

• McCarthy said that the delay was not a sign of trouble but he also doesn't “think there's enough progress for the leaders to get back together. President Biden and Senator Schumer are stuck on ‘no.’ They have no plan, no proposed savings, and no clue. Apparently, President Biden doesn’t want to deal. He wants to default.” - Reuters, Bloomberg

• Yellen was again bearish on using the 14th Amendment to ignore the debt ceiling: “What I would say, it’s legally questionable whether or not that’s a viable strategy.” - WSJ

  • Even the June 1 is unclear: “As we get closer I may be able to provide more refined guidance.” - Bloomberg

4. Jamie Dimon proposes a ban on short selling of bank stocks

Taleb correctly points out that banning short sales would be an attempt to address symptoms, not root causes of the banking crisis. - Bloomberg

• Jamie Dimon also criticized Trump's openness to defaulting: “It’s one more thing he doesn’t know very much about. Anyone who’s anyone knows that is potentially catastrophic. I don’t think it’s going to happen — because it gets catastrophic, and the closer you get to it, you will have panic. It affects contracts, collateral, clearing houses, clients – it affects clients differently around the world. You have to then anticipate what people are going to do.” - Bloomberg

• Zillow projects 8% mortgage rates in case of a default, from 6% currently. “A US default threatens to ‘send the market into a deep freeze,’ according to Jeff Tucker, a senior economist at Zillow.” - Bloomberg

PacWest had a very volatile week, falling 23% on Thu and now trading at 25% of book value

Read more: WSJ.

5. 62% of workers are satisfied with their jobs, a 36-year high

Quality of leadership, culture, and work-life balance are important determinants of job satisfaction

Hybrid and remote workers are slightly more satisfied than in-person ones

Read more: WSJ, Conference Board.

6. Other headlines

Tech

• Meta announces AI Sandbox for advertisers, available for a few partners.

• Bluesky had 628K mobile downloads in April, 7x its March numbers.

• Elon asks court to throw out requirement that a lawyer screens his tweets.

• EU's AI bill getting tougher rules, to be sent to member states soon.

• Artifact now lets you follow writers, who can become verified.

• Twitter disables autocomplete after it recommends torture videos.

• Lyft to discontinue pooled rides.

• SEO: will Google Search's AI changes hurt publishers? Yes, likely.

Biotech

• 1st public longevity clinic unveiled in Israel: Sheba Medical Center.

• FDA approves 1st drug to treat Alzheimer's agitation symptoms.

• Donanemab is not as good as it seems.

• Botox competitor Daxxify hits $15M in revenue in Q1.

Business

• News Corp jumps even as revenue is -2% to $2.45B.

• Masa Son now owes Softbank $5B, as his love for leverage continues.

• Icahn authorizes buyback equaling 27% of his company's shares.

• CNN CEO happy with Kaitlan Collins’s performance grilling Trump.

• Disney stock was -9% as investors worried about subscriber loss.

• Citadel: a look at Peng Zhao, the genius leading global market-making.

Crypto

• BlockFi bankruptcy: custodial wallet users getting their $300M back.

• Binance.US: CZ trying to sell his majority (~90%) stake to appease regulators.

• McHenry to SEC: which crypto firms have tried to register?

• U.S. Chamber of Commerce sides with Coinbase, blasts SEC.

• Do Kwon denies fake docs, asks for $437K bail.

• Meta is still “really interested” in the metaverse: Meta exec.

• Pepe: Coinbase apologizes for calling it a hate symbol.

U.S. politics

• Title 42, used during Covid to expel immigrants, expires.

• 18-to-20-year-olds can't be barred from buying handguns, federal judge rules.

• DeSantis behind Trump even in Florida.

• Carroll may file a new defamation suit against Trump after CNN town hall.

• Trump appeals $5M judgment.

• NYC man who choked homeless to be charged with manslaughter.

• NYC may start fining people based on their income.

• George Santos pleads guilty in Brazil theft case to avoid criminal charges.

World

• WSJ reporter: Congress sends letter, U.S. open to international swap.

• Zelensky claims gains in Bakhmut, says military needs more weapons.

• Ukraine being trained by U.S. IRS in finding Russian assets.

• Russia denies any Ukrainian breakthroughs.

• Russia's foreign agents law to include third parties, even more repressive.

• Dubai helps Russia import Western luxury goods.

7. Interesting tweets, memes, and images

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